Backgammon is mainly a skill game, but since there are dice involved, there is always an element of luck. Luck is embodied in the randomness, of the dice. While there is no way to predict the next roll, there are a limited number of possibilities, and a little bit of knowledge of probability can help a lot when you're trying to decide what move to make.

In face-to-face backgammon, dice are said to be fair when there is an equal chance that any of the six faces of the die will be shown in any given throw. In online backgammon, since real dice are not used, other methods of producing random and therefore, fair, rolls of the dice are used. Complex mathematical algorithms - step-by-step, problem-solving procedures - allow backgammon software programmers to create a random throw of the die in online backgammon. It's important to only play online backgammon on sites which have had their random number generator audited by an independent company.

Once a player understands the randomness of the dice, he can make better informed decisions regarding each move in response to any given roll. There are not an infinite number of possible rolls of two dice, as a matter of fact, there are only 36 possible combinations (six ways for the first die to land and six ways for the second die to land, and any combination of the two). Understanding the chances of throwing a particular combination of pips will help you decide how risky a move might be.

For example; if you must choose between two moves, one in which you will leave a blot that is one point away from your opponent, and another move which will leave a blot nine points away from your opponent, how do you choose which is the less risky move? Using the theory of probability, you can calculate the chance that he will hit either of these blots on the next roll.

If your opponent throws any combination of dice that show a 1, he will be able to hit a blot which is one point away. There are 11 such possible rolls; 1-1 (only one combination of the dice produces 1-1), a 1 on the first die, and any other number on the second die: 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5, 1-6, an/or a 1 on the second die and any other number on the first die: 2-1, 3-1, 4-1, 5-1, 6-1. That makes the probability of getting hit 11 out of 36 possible rolls.

If, on the other hand, your other possible move would leave a blot nine points away from your opponent, he would have to roll one of the following combinations: 4-5, 5-4, 3-6, or 6-3. The probability of this event is 4 out of 36, a lower chance of being hit. Now it should be clear which is the less risky move.

The previous example also demonstrates something important. The probability of hitting any given number under six is much higher than the probability of getting any given number over six. The probability, for example, of getting a six, is very high.

In addition to the eleven possibilities of hitting six on a single die, six can also be rolled with 1-5, 5-1, 2-4, 4-2, and 3-3, meaning that it can be rolled in 16 different ways - That's more than 1/3 of the possible rolls! Of course, it's likely that some of the ways will be blocked by intervening pieces, but it's crucial to know the probabilities when you need to make a decision.

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